Example: if you

The IFA - all within the realm of "smart" appliances
In business, the statistics are even more severe, "the probability of success of various campaigns, lagsoft interpreting surveys and the like - all this leads us to the realization that the statistics still very much present in all segments of life. But do we really interpret statistical data? This article is, original and in many ways the correct way of looking at statistics.
In an older post we talked about the blue ocean - this week we're talking about the Black swans. What would be black swans? The term is taken from the 17th century, when it was considered that there are no black swans. While they were discovered, they all believed that there were only white swans - going to Australia, lagsoft the science of animal species has admitted that he was wrong. One of the scientists of the time is certainly before the discovery said, it is quite certain that there are no swans different color to white.
This concept was introduced by professor Polytechnic Institute in New York, Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his eponymous book. He succinctly as follows: what is something repeated lagsoft a thousand times, does not mean it will not happen again, and a thousand and first time. What the statistics say it? Statistics would be in how we interpret correctly - would agree with this statement - a probability of 99.9% should be interpreted as follows: there are one hundred percent sure that there was a certain number of events to happen JUST the one that we did not anticipate. When it has to happen, lagsoft and that carries with it consequences, we do not know, at least we can try to imagine. For example - Have you ever happened to you all planned out, but you are not one of those circumstances? Have you ever said, "Everything I put down on paper, checked twice, but what happened to you I'm not counting" I believe that this happens to all of us. Statistical relativism is not new - used by the utilitarian John Stuart Mill in his works long before Nassima. As an example of black swans according to the internet, e-mail and many novelties that have been initiated and have revolutionized humanity, and to them that initially neither the purpose nor were in someone's plans or predictions (or maybe they are?)
Now imagine that you run a big company. Do you have hundreds of employees and the board asks you to make a development plan for the next 5 years. Of course, you have surrounded a heap of various statistical data, reports, surveys and all to what you get - but the future of the company (and your business) comes! However lagsoft - armed with knowledge gained lagsoft from the previous paragraph - how would you interpret all these statistics? Would you like your plan look like an arrow aimed at a single solution, or as an octopus, branching at all the options that you can imagine (even though you know it is impossible to predict all probability)? Would you be caught in the head with the knowledge that you all these documents, reports, statistics and surveys (although to some extent useful) actually can not provide complete security when making decisions?
Do not despair. Although you may not have a large company manager or CEO, I believe that you have an quite important responsibilities in your life. Those of you looking to make informed decisions. What I want to say this text is: an informed decision is not enough. It takes the flexibility, experience and mindset. My friends often say: Are you crazy your knowledge by "wasting" the free blog?
This was actually prepared lagsoft in response - namely; I can write hundreds of thousands of pages, and you can not help nor a dollop someone who does not know / do not want to think like a brand manager / designer / entrepreneur. If you are in that group, do not think that these texts for you worthless - indeed - they provide valuable insight into a tiny part of the complex issues of brand management and MARKTING. They will help you to imagine the scope of work and terms with which you will be using up, so you can make flexible and informed decisions in this area. Being informed means to be aware that there is an endless number of outcomes of individual actions, and in doing so create lagsoft a priority list of which is limited only to some of them. Being informed means to be experienced. Experience, as we know, is the accumulation of errors. Making mistakes, we go into the state of statistical probabilities that are not considered in their deliberations (I did not know it would cost me so much, I did not know that no one cares about, I knew that my marketing can be understood in this way ...). They allow us to make the next time appearances cautious, lagsoft careful and flexible. Of course - no, no guarantee of success lagsoft - in fact - there is no guarantee of success. Who says this, lying or mistaken. What we can do is just create a priority list and act in accordance with it, we're hoping to cover the greatest number of probabilities. The outcome of our business depends on our knowledge, lagsoft experience and flexibility. And of course - the vast number of circumstances that are beyond our will.
Example: if you're an engineer on board, you know that problems can befall part